GBPJPY Asians session Dec 7th

Good evening traders

The GBPJPY took a rapid up move on Friday and is now forming what looks to be a bull flag on the 15min charts

The flag pole is 400 pips long and IF we get a break out of the top of this flag price could move back into 140 during UK session tonight.

There is a 1-2-3 sell with a 38 % fe at 137.60. This is also just above the previous high obtained in the US session Friday. A breakout of this level opens targets 138.62 , 139.35 , and 140

For those of you trading the London session on Monday keep your eyes on how this chart pattern plays out.

Regards

Malcolm

GBPJPY NOV 19th

Good evening traders

The fake out breakout of this morning of the 146.50 level may have been the top of the current market , as I mentioned in the trading room this morning.

The GBPJPY dropped 500 pips and is now forming a bear flag in Asia.

The chart in the blog shows the fib retracements that the flag may reverse from . By the looks of the price action right now we may not even get above 144.

The rules of flag is that the breakout to the downside is as long as the flag pole, in this case being 500 pips long.

Assuming that the flag does not break 144 , and the flag pole being 500 pips this takes us to 139 ish

I have drawn a 1-2-3 sell formation with fib extensions on it , assuming that 144 is top of the flag. This gives down side targets of 141.96 , 141.37 , 140.77 , 139.92 , 138.85

The best place to enter this trade is the breakdown of the bear flag , which will likely happen sometime during the London session

GBPJPY TUESDAY POST US

Good afternoon traders

The triangle that is forming in the GBPJPY right now has strong symmetry with the triangle that formed 139 to 165 off the last lows

the lows of the previous triangle are :

138.98 , 140.70, 142.90

This triangle are:
138.87, 140.45 , 142.60

If in fact this is a channel then there is a 1-2-3 buy formation giving upside targets of

146 , 147.4 , 148.43 , 150

GBPJPY 4 hour Tuesday

Good afternoon Traders

Here is an end of US session GBPJPY 4 hr charts.

We have had a bearish rejection of the top of the bull flag which is bearish bias .

Supporting the bearish bias is the fact that the upper trend line on the RSI has not been broken yet .

However the following items support a bullish bias
1) the trend line from the Euro session has barely been broken with little selling pressure
2) The volume on the up move was expanding indicating professional buying into the up move
3) The price is above both the 33 and 14 sma

So how do we trade this ?

There are 2 trade sets up
1) Go long above the open of the last 4 hour candle at 160.5 with upside targets of the 1-2-3 buy set up and fib expansions at 163,6
2) Go short on a breakdown of the 4 hour 14 and 33 sma at 158,50 , target bottom of flag at 153 area.

Have a great trading day .

Malcolm

GBPJPY THIS AFTERNOON

The GBPJPY has been forming a bear flag for most of the afternoon

If price drops under the bottom of this flag in Asia , then a good entry would be 156.40 , with downside targets 155.84,154.95, 153,50 , 151

T4F MARKET ANALYSIS NOV 3RD TO 7TH

The markets next week Nov 3rd to Nov 7th

The week has been another very volatile week. The market finished with looked to me to be the end of a bear rally. The week ahead is going to be another volatile one, with the election on Tuesday.

GBPJPY moved up at the first half of last week to test the 61.8% of the move from 139.50 to 180. This has now formed a pivot for a channel top . There are 2 scenarios that will play out next week. I am favouring scenario 1 at the moment, although there may be some sort of up thrust to test the 161 area before we get the drop .
1) The 61.8% fib retracement did form a channel top at 165 and in the beginning part of next week ,we may see a re-test of this channel at about 161 . This will look like a breakout of the current bull flag on the 60 min chart and re-test may well be in the form of a bull trap before the big drop into bottom of channel at 125. If the slope of the down move from 160 region is the same as the slope of the move from 180 to 139 we could see the 125 target by late this week or early the week of Nov 10th to 14th.
2) Scenario 2 is that this really is a bull flag and we get a breakout of the top of the flag. The 1-2-3 buy formation gives a long trade on a breakout of 161.80 with upside targets of 165, 170.8 and 174




The GBP had a bear rally last week, stopping right on the 38% fib retracement of the 1.8670 to 1.5270 up move. It has formed what looks to be an evening star candle formation on the daily. We need to get a break down of 1.6000 for this to be confirmed. There are 2 scenarios that may play out next week. I am favouring scenario 1.
1) The evening star is in fact a bearish reversal signal and price breaks below 1.6000. There is a 1-2-3 sell formation that can be drawn on the daily chart. If the 38 % fib extension of this 1-2-3 sell is broken at 1.5858 then downside targets are 1.5335, 1,4965 , 1.4489.
2) If the rally is going to continue into next week ( which we doubt) there is a 1-2-3 buy formation on the 4 hour chart , with fib expansions placed on gives us a buy entry at 1.6540 with upside targets 1.6870 , 1.7500 , 1.8000




If the GBPJPY sell scenario comes into play there is also a short trade set up on the eurjpy , which is a short under 124 , for downside target at bottom of channel 110ish.
Using fib time cycles and symmetry on US stock indexes and currency pairs a new pivot low could form on or around Nov 7th .
Once again we wish you luck in your trading next week. The team at Trade4freedom expects it to be another volatile week
www.trade4freedom.com

EUR CAD May 10th

Good afternoon traders

I have been studying the EURCAD charts this morning and have made some interesting observations:

Here is the weekly chart. The last time rapid rsi dropped from overbought when regular rsi did also there was a 2000 pip decline. We have only just started thatdecline. The 5 week consolidation just under 1.6300 is typical box consolidation and can indicate major tops. Also the 1.63000 level represented the end of wave 5 up.



Below is the daily. This is simple. We are coming down off a treble top. As long as we stay in the linear regression channel I am thinking we may get a retrenchment down to the 61.8% fib of the move up at 1.5150 zone. We are under the 50 sma on the daily also and the 10 sma crossed down thru the 50 a few days ago , nice bearishness in the charts. 1.5500 is the number to break , we tried it once and bounced hard as the usdcad gained strength in the middle of last week.

Now consider the second treble top as the dividing line , if we mirror image the move up , then the move down could be to 1.4500.



8 hour is simple. ... we have a bearish moving average stack , 10 over 20 over 50 . On the move up from 1.4500 the moving averages were in a bullish stack the whole way up , so unless this bearish stack is broken on the 8 hour we are heading down.



The 2 hour is forming a pennant , this is a continuation pattern to the downside.



Now if we break the 50 sma on the daily and the top of the pennant at 1.5700 to the upside all bets on the bearish bias are off.